Necessary Considerations concerning the Jan 12th Haiti Earthquake aftermath by Alex Von Lignau
We have passed the critical initial stage of initial frequent aftershocks.
- “ After shock “ may still continue to happen for a while yet. Maybe months. They should however continue to become less potent, as the fault is settling.
- The Caribbean Plate is still moving and balancing strain on its edges.
By showing some “light” shakes on its edges.
On the West side, the 5.7 of January 19th @ 10 Km at the end of Haiti’s south fault located in front and east of Grand Cayman Island where the Haiti South fault meets the Caribbean Plate Boundary in the subduction Zone to the North American Plate
On the south west side the boundary between the Caribbean and the Cocos Plates. ( last one: Jan 30 4.8 on the mating edge with the Cocos plate in El Salvador at 190.9 Km in depth, Colombia Jan 29th 4.9 @ 137.8 Km)
On the South/South-West at the triple intersection of the Caribbean , the Cocos and the Nazca plates, with a series of tremors Like 5 on Jan 23rd @ 35 km from 5.2 to 4.7 in Costa Rica Jan 23.
On the South, The combined boundary of the Nazca, South-American and Caribbean Plates has also shaken in Columbia with a 4.9 on Jan 29th @ 137.8 km showing very deep adjustments following 2 jolts on Jan 24th and jan 29th with respective Magnitudes of 4.7 and 4.6 at respective depth of 148.8 and 147.5 Km.
The East side of the Caribbean plate reacted as well with since Jan 24th with a 5.1 @ 67.9 Km in the Leeward Islands.
On the North side, the extreme Subduction pressures between the Carribean and North American Plate combined with the North/North-east Caribbean Plate motion vectors have maintained the status-quo of the Haiti Northern Transform Fault.
All of the above confirm that the entire Caribbean plate has somewhat adjusted to our South Transform Fault slip differential changes resulting from the event of mag 7.00 of January 12th.
It also means that the Plate Pressure Parameters within the entire Caribbean Plate have also changed!! Haiti has now had a break since Jan 27th after the last aftershock tightened the Fault Mechanical lock located East of Port-au-Prince between the general area of Belle-Fontaine and the South-East oriented Mountain Range behind Barahona. This “Mechanical Lock” has the shape of a wide and inverted U (when Map orientation has Top due North) and measures approximately 70 Kilometers in width with an Arc height of approximately 20 Kilometers. on the entire Thickness of the fault.
The Mechanical Lock due to the geologic details of the La Selle Mountain range should hold, at least for a while (a few decades or more!). The slip Pressures on Both of Haiti’s Transform Faults will increase again however and with time will put more pressure on the Northern Fault that will have to adjust within the 5 to 10 decades. This does not state that there will not be interim adjustments events within the Northern Caribbean Plate Fault System, I am expecting these possible adjustments to be in around Mag 6 or less, most likely around the Micro-plates of Gonave and Enriquillo, initially.
What is next?
- 400,000 + at multi-level of injuries.
- 200,000 buried in mass graves as of the 28th.
* More to be found inside rubbles that for the major part are still untouched.
*Carefour, close to Epicentre just starting to be penetrated and remaining injured starting to be channeled to hospitals, dead being moved.
* Leogane with estimated 90% destruction factor
* Grand Goave, Petit Goave etc
* Estimating another 75,000 + dead to be found.
* Secondary delayed death. Estimating about 15% of seriously injured, seen at hospitals will die from injuries secondary complications.
*Rainy season approaching!!
* All drainages for the Port-au-Prince General Area under serious strain due to Rubbles clogging all water drainage passages.
* With many corpse still decomposing in rubbles, Rain water will wash out to street flood waters “ corpse Juice” increasing seriously danger of infectious diseases.
* Promiscuity in Earthquake refugees tent compounds throughout the open areas will increase risk of general contamination from pathogens, specially Airborne ones.
- H1N1 Virus propagation
- Rainy season Flu contagion
- And certainly not to underestimate Possibility of Outbreak of diseases such as Cholera and others!.
- Next 30 to 60 days critical for above.
So far emergency Medicals have gone for the best possible under the circumstances.
But possible Pathogen infections can be extremely strenuous on actual surviving medical structures.
The more at risk will be the Young and the elderly during this next phase!
Haïti, malade de ses charades