Les Elections du 25 Octobre 2015: Une analyse pour comprendre le blocage des anarcho populistes par Stanley Lucas

En ce 25 octobre 2016, l’heure est propice à une analyse du blocage du processus électoral qui a suivi la fin du mandat légal du président Martelly. Depuis lors un groupe de sénateurs a procédé à une série de blocages électoraux et a développé une stratégie de sabotage des solutions de conciliation. Il en a résulté une dégradation de la situation politique, au milieu des jeux dangereux d’un groupe de politiciens. L’étendue de la tragédie provoquée par le cyclone rend dérisoire ces manipulations et magouilles qui ne correspondent absolument pas aux urgences et aux attentes du pays.

Le processus électoral de 2015 a débuté en 2011 quand Michel Martelly a demandé aux Présidents des deux Chambres du Parlement de participer à la création du Conseil Electoral Permanent (CEP).

Un amendement problématique

À l’époque, les présidents des deux Chambres Simon Desras et Levaillant Louis Jeune réclamaient la publication de la constitution amendée, comme condition pour s’engager dans la formation du CEP.  Plusieurs secteurs de la société étaient opposés à la publication de cet amendement à cause de la falsification réalisée par le Sénateur Jocelerme Privert. L’amendement fut finalement publié le 19 Juin 2012.

 Martelly accepte le CEP d’exception

Quelques jours plus tard le 9 Juillet 2012 le Président Martelly écrit aux Présidents des deux Chambres pour leur demander de communiquer le nom des trois délégués devant représenter le pouvoir Législatif  au CEP.  Simon Desras rétorque que la formation du CEP n’est pas une priorité pour les sénateurs. Un mois plus tard Desras affirme qu’il est opposé à la formation d’un CEP permanent et propose un CEP d’exception, plus précisément un CTCEP (College Transitoire du Conseil Electoral Permanent). Trois journalistes ne donneront jamais à Martelly le bénéfice du doute.

Martelly acceptera la proposition des sénateurs à travers la signature d’un Accord. Les parlementaires attendront trois mois pour la mise en œuvre de l’Accord, alors que, le 5 Avril 2013, le Pouvoir Judiciaire désigne ses trois membres pour compléter le CEP qui rentrera en fonction le 19 Avril 2013.

Stratégie de blocage électoral de la part de Desras

Malgré tout, le double jeu de Desras contre les élections continue avec la complicité du Sénateur Moïse Jean-Charles à travers deux déclarations.  Assoiffé de pouvoir, Desras fera de nouvelles exigences en échange du vote de la loi électorale.  Martelly acceptera les nouvelles demandes à travers l’Accord El Rancho qui sera signé entre les partis. Ayant respecte sa part de l’Accord, Martelly transmettra au parlement le 31 Mars 2014 les amendements à la loi électorale proposé par le Comité de Suivi de l’Accord d’El Rancho au parlement en vue d’être votés en urgence. Le 2 Avril, les députés votent à l’unanimité l’amendement de la loi électorale comme convenu dans l’Accord d’El Rancho. La loi électorale transmise au Sénat depuis le 4 Avril est bloquée par six sénateurs. Après vingt jours de blocages de la loi électorale, le Président Martelly écrit au Sénat pour encourager le vote de la loi votée a l’unanimité par la Chambre des Députés. Le Président du Sénat, Simon Desras qui avait proposé le CEP d’exception ou CTCEP change encore sa position. Cette fois, afin de bloquer et retarder le processus électoral, il propose la formation d’un Conseil Electoral Provisoire (CEP) selon l’article 289 de la constitution.

Martelly répond au Président du Sénat lui rappelant les longues étapes et les concessions consenties depuis 2012 et les engagements pris lors de l’Accord El Rancho. Pas question de retourner en arrière dans l’esprit de bloquer l’organisation des élections.  On apprendra que l’ensemble des manouvres de Desras avait pour objectif de renverser le Président Martelly dans l’espoir qu’il deviendrait Président Provisoire de la république. Le blocage des élections, la demande de soldats Chilien au Président du Senat de ce pays pour renverser le gouvernement constitutionnel, le montage fait sur le cadavre du Juge Jean Serge Joseph et des accusations chaque semaine sans preuve dans la presse font partie de ces efforts.

Martelly résiste au sabotage électoral de certains sénateurs

Conformément à la constitution et à l’Accord d’El Rancho, le Président Martelly, n’ayant reçu aucune objection des deux pouvoirs, confirme leurs membres au CEP à travers un arrêté. Ils seront installés dans leurs fonctions le 9 Mai 2014. Deux nouveaux membres seront installes le 17 Juillet. Nous sommes déjà en Août, cinq mois après le vote de la loi électorale à l’unanimité par la Chambre des députés. C’est le moment que choisissent six sénateurs pour bloquer le vote de la loi électorale au Sénat et pour empêcher l’organisation des élections. Inquiet, le CEP écrit au Président de la république pour l’informer de la nécessité du vote de la loi électorale pour l’organisation des prochaines élections et de la difficulté de respecter la date du 26 Octobre si ce n’est pas fait. De son côté, Desras décide de changer sa tactique politique de blocage. Dans une lettre au Président Martelly le Sénateur Desras reconnaît sa difficulté à faire fonctionner le Sénat et à faire voter la loi électorale. Martelly lui répond qu’il attend un signal clair du Sénat de leur volonté d’organiser les élections à travers le vote de la loi électorale.

Harcèlement sénatorial et dégradation de l’environnement politique

Face à cette guérilla menée par des sénateurs pour bloquer le fonctionnement électoral de l’État, l’environnement politique se dégrade. Parmi de nombreux partis politiques qui voulaient renverser Martelly, trente-cinq partis et regroupements politiques exigent des élections cette année. Bien que six sénateurs soient responsables de ce blocage, des éléments de la presse l’attribuent à Martelly. Le Conseil Permanent de l’Organisation des Etats Américains annonce dans une déclaration que L’Exécutif Haïtien, la Chambre des Députés ont respecté leurs engagements afin de faciliter l’organisation des élections mais que jusqu’à cette date le Sénat n’avait entrepris aucune action. Martelly essaie une énième tentative : il invite les six sénateurs de l’opposition á une rencontre au Palais National le 1er septembre. Dans leur obsession de blocage du processus électoral les sénateurs ne répondront pas à l’invitation, sauf Desras le malin…

Tentatives de conciliation et concessions gouvernementales

Confrontée à ce blocage, l’Ambassadrice des Etats Unis aux Nations Unies, Samantha Powers fera des déclarations au Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies pour demander au Sénateurs de remplir leurs responsabilités constitutionnelles. Plusieurs chefs de file du Congrès des Etats Unis écriront pour encourager les sénateurs à voter la loi électorale afin de faciliter l’organisation des élections en Haïti. Martelly pour sa part renouvellera son invitation aux sénateurs obstructionnistes. Pour sa part l’Organisation du Peuple en Lutte (OPL) proposera, qu’en échange du vote de la loi électorale, les parlementaires resteront en poste jusqu’au prochaines élections malgré la fin de leur mandat. Finalement, Martelly lance le 22 Septembre une troisième ronde de consultations et dialogue entre les acteurs politiques d’Haïti. Il déclare qu’il est prêt à de nouvelles concessions dans le cadre de ce dialogue avec l’opposition. Ce dialogue durera 10 jours, du 25 septembre au 8 Octobre. Il donnera naissance à deux nouveaux accords : la formation d’un nouveau CEP et le contrôle du gouvernement par l’opposition.

Coup d’État institutionnel et sabordage électoral

Ce coup d’État forcera la démission du Premier Ministre Laurent Lamothe, sans un vote du parlement et l’installation d’un nouveau Premier Ministre Evans Paul sans ratification. L’opposition prendra aussi le CEP qui aura à sa tête Pierre Louis Opont. C’est le CEP de l’opposition qui organisera les élections du 9 Août et du 25 Octobre 2015. Les élections du 9 Août 2015 étaient caractérisées par des irrégularités, fraudes et la violence de quatre-vingt-cinq partis politiques. Selon les rapports des journalistes et des radios d’Haïti, la journée électorale du 25 Octobre 2015 était, à part quelques petits dérapages, parfaite.  Plusieurs leaders politiques ayant conclu qu’ils n’avaient pas gagné parce qu’ils n’avaient pas reçus de procès verbaux, privilèges réservés aux candidats classés premier et deuxième, conformément au décret électoral, décidèrent de saboter les élections.

 Sans la moindre contestation légale et formelle, une campagne de sabotage des élections fut lancée par Jude Célestin, Moïse Jean Charles et Maryse Narcisse à travers des subterfuges. Ils seront aidés dans cette campagne destructrice par quatre journalistes.

Jude Célestin joue au « qui perd gagne »…

 Jude Célestin a perdu et est classé second à cause de plusieurs erreurs. Jude Célestin et ses alliés décidèrent de prendre le processus en otage en réclamant la mise en place d’une Commission d’évaluation Electorale, ce qui constituait une demande inconstitutionnelle.  Les constituants de 1987 voulaient à tout prix éviter l’interférence de l’Exécutif dans la gestion du processus électoral. Martelly accepta les desideratas de Jude et ses allies.  Jude utilisa les recommandations de cette commission qu’il réfutait pour faire de nouvelles demandes.  

Le coup mortel fut donné au processus électoral suite aux déclarations de Danton Léger la nuit du 21 au 22 Janvier quand des commandos ont attaqué treize centres de votes qu’ils ont pillés et brûlés, ainsi que le Lycée flambant neuf Anacaona de Léogane.  L’Organisation des Etats Américains (OEA) à travers sa Mission d’Observation Electorale ne fera aucun rapport sur cette violence politique. Face a cette violence Martelly signera un Accord qui ouvrira, sans élections, la porte de la Présidence a l’opposition. Le Calendrier de cet Accord prévoyait l’organisation des élections présidentielles le 14 Mai et la fin de mandat du Président Provisoire le 14 Juin 2016. Dans la nuit du 13 au 14 Février l’Assemblée Nationale organisa une élection au second degré pour choisir un Président provisoire de la république. Les trois candidats Edgard Leblanc, Jocelerme Privert et Dejean Belizaire étaient tous d’anciens présidents de l’Assemblée Nationale.  Apres un deal avec Leblanc, Privert fut élu Président provisoire de la république. Il mit de cote son deal avec Leblanc et décida de saboter l’accord en choisissant un Premier Ministre de sa famille politique, Fritz Jean. Privert fut ramené à la raison par le parlement qui donna un vote de confiance à Fritz Jean. Ce fut une défaite frappante pour Privert qui commençait à réafficher ses tendances antidémocratiques. Privert était implique dans le massacre de la scierie selon des organisations de droits humains, l’armement des gangs du kidnapping en 2004 quand il était le Ministre de l’Intérieur et la falsification de la constitution comme sénateur de la république. Malgré le signal sans équivoque du parlement Privert et le Secrétaire General de la Présidence Anthony Barbier initièrent un processus de manipulation pour prendre le contrôle du nouveau Conseil Electoral qui allait être nomme. Ces manipulations pour construire un CEP partisan débutèrentau sein du secteur droits humains et continua avec plusieurs autres secteurs mentionnes dans l’article 289 de la constitution. Une fois le CEP en place, Privert se servira de LéopoldBélanger, le Président du CEP, pour nommer une Commission Présidentielle de Vérification, communément appelée par la population Commission de Falsification pour manipuler les résultats des élections de 2015. Son objectif politique était d’éliminer le candidat gagnant des élections de 2015. Malgré les manipulations Privert ne réussit pas son coup avec la Commission de Vérification dont le rapport est truffe d’erreurs factuelles et légales. Face a cet échec il décidera unilatéralement avec des complicités de l’Initiative de la Société Civile (ISC), d’annuler les élections espérant qu’a travers la manipulation et les magouilles qu’il pouvait obtenir un résultat diffèrent. Privert plonge dans ses magouilles pour se maintenir au pouvoir n’organisa pas les élections ni le 14 Mai 2011 ni a la fin de son mandat le 14 Juin 2016.  De la manipulation du processus électoral en faveur de son camp politique,  à la corruption, aux abus de pouvoir, aux menaces de violences, l’affaire des Cayes, dut faire face aux violations des droits humais, aux nominations illégales et à la gestion… de l’état.

Jocelerme Privert, l’homme au bilan catastrophique

Le bilan de Jocelerme Privert à la fin de son mandat le 14 Juin est une catastrophe. Sa corruption de quelques militants de droits humains n’a pas pu enterrer ces violations. Depuis la fin de son mandat le de facto, Privert est l’objet de poursuites judiciaires pour usurpation de titre et violations de la constitution après sa décision de se maintenir au pouvoir au delà de la date constitutionnelle.

 La fin de son mandat n’est pas seulement reconnue par le Corps Législatif et le pouvoir judiciaire mais aussi par la Commission Interaméricaine des Droits de l’homme. Son dossier est actuellement à la Cour d’Appel. Président illégal et de facto depuis le 15 Juin Privert tire les ficelles pour l’exécution du coup d’État électoral souhaité.  Les menaces sur huit superviseurs électoraux qu’il essayait de récupérer déclenchent la sonnette d’alarme. L’invention du poste « Observateurs Communautaires » non prévu dans le décret électoral  est immédiatement combattu par le PHTK devant les tribunaux et a dû être annulé.

Cafouillage et tripatouillage, comme mode de fonctionnement

La nomination de deux statisticiens de la Commission présidentielle de Vérification, comme Directeur et Directeur adjoint du centre de tabulation du CEP est sans précédent, parce que donnant le contrôle du centre de tabulation des résultats des élections au palais présidentiel. Les magouilles entourant le processus d’authentification de l’ONI est rejeté par le CEP dans le but de voler des centaines de milliers de cartes électorales au bénéfice du candidat favori de Privert qui est en bas dans les sondages.

C’est dans ce contexte que se préparaient les élections du 9 Octobre qui ont dû être annulées à cause de l’ouragan Mathieu. Le dernier sondage  avant le 9 Octobre donnait Jovenel Moise gagnant avec 54% suivi de Jude Célestin 23%, Moise Jean Charles 12% et Maryse Narcisse 7%. Un an plus tard, le 25 Octobre 2016 la victoire de 2015 de Jovenel Moise n’est que renforce. Nombreux sont qui se demandent pourquoi les anarcho populistes ont fait tant de torts aux pays. Les résultats qu’ils espéraient changer demeurent.

Suite à une évaluation réalisée après le passage de l’ouragan Mathieu, de 1567 centres de vote, 194 ont été endommagés, soit 12.5% du total des centres. Sur cette base le CEP de Berlanger avait prévu d’organiser ces élections le 30 Octobre selon l’information qu’il a communiquée aux partis politiques, lors d’une réunion récente. Sous pression politique de Privert, Berlanger a changé la date pour le 20 Novembre.

Bien compté, mal calculé : l’incompréhension des besoins réels d’Haïti

Le fait de ne pas savoir comment changer les chiffres des sondages donne de sérieux maux de tête à Privert. Malgré la publication de l’Arrêté convoquant le peuple dans ses comices, Privert essaie de développer une stratégie du chaos en utilisant le parti Fanmi Lavalas. Ils espèrent qu’en fomentant la violence et l’instabilité politique il y aura moyen d’annuler les élections et de créer un environnement favorable à l’installation d’un gouvernement provisoire pour deux ans, afin de pouvoir changer la Constitution sans le vote du peuple. C’est-à-dire quelque chose qui causerait la révolte générale dans le pays.  Haïti, pour régler ses problèmes urgents et dramatiques a besoin de stabilité et de dirigeants constitutionnels ayant reçu le suffrage populaire que seules les élections peuvent légitimer.

Haiti: No President – What’s Next? by Stanley Lucas

The term of President Michel Martelly ended today, February 7. Because the Constitution does not provide a process for power transition when elections are not finalized, Haitian political and international actors have convened for the past two weeks to discuss how to move forward given the power vacuum. Several scenarios were on the table: an agreement among the three branches of government that Martelly remain in office, like former President Preval did in 2011, to complete the elections (despite calls of the opposition to ouster him); install the non partisan President of the Supreme Court or a judge of this court, as was done successfully under the 1990 and 2006 electoral crises; or, have the Prime Minister (or a newly appointed Prime Minister) oversee a three month transition. Various political parties and organizations put forward another 28 proposals for the transition each of them with their own Provisional President and Prime Minister.

Given the Haitian’s political parties inability to reach a consensus on a path forward on their own, the Organization of American States (OAS) sent a mission to Haiti last week to facilitate a dialogue among political actors for the transition and finalize the elections. Some of the actors wanted a coup. An agreement was brokered and the implementation starts today. The agreement includes:                  

       1.     President farewell speech in parliament (Feb. 7)

       2.     Parliament will acknowledge the void of the Presidency (Feb. 7)

       3.     Parliament will inform the Haitian people about how a Provisional President will be selected (Feb.7)

       4.     Parliament will name a bicameral commission to work on the selection process; citizens will be able to submit their names to the commission (Feb. 7)

       5.     Parliament will vote for a new Provisional President (TBD)

       6.     After the new President is sworn in, s/he:

a. Confirm the current Prime Minister of consensus or name a new one

            b. Write to various sectors of Haitian society, in accordance with Article 289 of the   

            Constitution, to form a new Provisional Electoral Council in order to organize the runoff of the elections on April 24 – the date set by the agreement under the auspices of OAS and the Democratic Charter (Feb. 11)

Without disciplined implementation, this agreement has the potential to lead Haiti into permanent instability. If parliament chooses a politician instead of a non-partisan Supreme Court judge, Haiti is in for trouble. Undoubtedly, a politician who becomes President overnight without the vote of the people will try to stay in power for at least three years by annulling the elections, dissolving parliament and changing the constitution. Historically, Supreme Court Judges have always followed the laws and the Constitution to the letter and eschewed partisan politics. Several political leaders are hesitant about the President of the Supreme Court because they claim he has a family relationship with Jude Celestin, one of the candidates qualified for the runoff. This is unverified.

Meanwhile sectors linked to political violence are taking advantage of the power vacuum by creating an unstable environment in order to seize power. Aristide sent into the streets two different types of operators. First, his main spokeperson, Gerald Gilles, has been vocally advocating that Aristide should be provisional President. They know clearly that the Constitution precludes him from serving another term because he has already served two. Second, the presence of members of Haiti’s disbanded army in the streets of Port-au-Prince two days ago fueled the fire. Aristide tried to take advantage of this situation by disguising his chimeres (violent political operators from the Lavalas party) as former military during their attack on a transfer banks and a police precinct in the town of Arcahaie, 30km from Port-au-Prince. 

Aristide historically has used these chimeres to carry out kidnapping and drug trafficking in order to finance the party. Most of these actors have been apprehended by the US Drug Enforcement Agency and tried in the US. According to various testimonies from Arcahaie the person linked to this attack is a chimere named Pa Bouke. The goal was to create more tension between the populace and the members of the disbanded army. Martelly, for the past four years, has refused to include the members of the disbanded army into the country’s new defense force oriented toward reconstruction. In the upcoming days, the country should expect in to see similar violent actions from the Aristide camp. In the face of the heightened violence, MINUSTAH, the UN mission in Haiti, has been completely ineffective in maintaining security.

In addition to the violence, we are already seeing an increase in corruption and political pay offs. Since yesterday, there is an full scale assault on the newly convened parliament by the economic cartel known as the Groupe de Bourdon, former President Rene Preval, the drug cartels, Aristide and others – all trying to buy the presidency.  Preval like Aristide is constitutionally precluded. All those efforts toward the transition are weakened by a surfacing scandal involving the President of the Senate, Jocelerme Privert. Many around the country are calling for his removal because he falsified the amended constitution in 2009 according Haitian newspapers and radios who investigated the issue and is responsible for the La Scierie massacre in Saint Marc when he was Minister of the Interior.

Without support from the international community to isolate the perpetrators of violence and corruption from the system, this – or any – brokered agreement is doomed for failure and Haiti will slip back into chaos for a decade or more. The OAS should actually leverage the Democratic Charter and conduct an investigation identifying the damaging actors and remove them from the process. The OAS did this successfully in 2001 when Aristide’s Lavalas burned down political parties headquarters. They should also continue to foster the dialogue between the democratic actors willing to sit at the table and negotiate in good faith. And finally, they should ramp up their support for the electoral process by increasing technical assistance to the CEP and strengthening the electoral observation mission.

The situation is fragile and the stakes are very high. Haiti has some slight momentum in the past five years addressing the dire economic, political and social situation of the country. Yet the Haitian political system and Haitian political actors are unable to foster the democratic process on their own. To protect the people of Haiti, the international community will need to step in, yet again, to support democracy.

Haiti between the completion of the elections and a coup d’état by Stanley Lucas

Executive Summary

The following report is intended to provide a brief summary of the reasons for the breakdown of the most recent elections in Haiti. The breakdown is happening on several tracks:

·         First, one of the two Presidential candidates qualifying for the runoff is undermining the electoral process by publicly claiming that he will not participate in the runoff election. Yet, he has not formally submitted a letter to the Permanent Electoral Council (CEP) giving notice that he will not participate. Therefore, their hands are tied in organizing the runoff.

·         Second, a small faction of the opposition parties, led by former President Aristide’s Fanmi Lavalas party along with the head of the Pitit Dessalines party, Moise Jean Charles, are using violence and intense lobbying in Washington, DC to derail the elections and conduct a coup d'état against current President Michel Martelly. The solution for this small faction is to disengage from the democratic process and push for a transitional government, which would plunge Haiti into political instability for at least the next 15 years. This faction has scant support from the Haitian people and 90% of the people oppose the coup.

·        Finally, six of the nine members of the CEP have resigned as a result of the violence. By law, there must be five CEP members to organize an election (there are currently only three). A plan to reconstitute the CEP is being negotiated by the members of the opposition and others. Mr. Celestin is advocating a “reshuffling” of the CEP.

Meanwhile, other representatives of the opposition parties accompanied by the Administration and key influential leaders are advocating a three-part strategy to maintain stability and the democratic process: 1. While Martelly wants to leave on February 7 when his term expires, he should remain in office until elections can be organized, as was done in 2011 under Preval; 2. Install a new Prime Minister; and, 3. Reconstitute the CEP. The key question is: how to set up a process that is inclusive in spite of the refusal of Celestin and the small faction of the opposition to participate? The Permanent Council of the Organization of American States (OAS) has assembled a mission to facilitate dialogue and find consensus, but there are serious questions about their goals. Since 2014, they are also serious questions about MINUSTAH's role in supporting democratic institutions against violence.

This report concludes with recommendations on a potential path forward and recommendations for the role the international community can play to help support a peaceful and democratic resolution to Haiti’s latest electoral crisis.

Presidential and Legislative Elections

Haiti held Legislative Elections on Augusts 9 followed by elections for President and the Legislative runoff on October 25. The August 9 elections, which included 85 political parties, were characterized by administrative deficiencies, fraud, irregularities and violence. The CEP sanctioned the candidates and employees of the electoral machinery involved in the irregularities. The Presidential runoff elections were scheduled for December and then rescheduled for January 24. They were again postponed due to violence, and are still pending.

Extreme and Widespread Violence Stalls the Runoffs

A week before the runoff, Deputy Danton Leger, one of the spokespeople for former President Jean Bertrand Aristide’s Fanmi Lavalas party, called for the use of violence to stop the elections and threatened to kill voters if they turned out on January 24 (see: https://www.facebook.com/Tripothaitien/videos/620246711446887/ ). These calls were echoed by Andre Michel, a self-proclaimed radical leader, and Rony Timothe, a former Lavalas member and creator of the FOPARK grassroots movement associated with Pitit Dessalines. Given the country’s violent electoral history[1], these threats to stop the elections, intimidate voters and drive down turnout were taken seriously by Haitian society.

According to several sources in the targeted municipalities, on January 18, Lavalas operatives took to the streets burning cars, businesses and houses in downtown Port-au-Prince and indiscriminately beat innocent bystanders. Moise Jean Charles, a former Lavalas senator who is now the head of Pitit Dessalines, had his supporters burn down the Municipal Electoral Office in Milot. Heavily armed paramilitary-style commandos close to Lavalas and Pitit Dessalines ransacked and burned 15 municipal voting centers around the country destroying all ballots and electoral material. And, they burned the country’s public schools used by the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) as voting centers.

In Port-au-Prince, two organizations MOLEGHAF (associated with Lavalas) and FOPARK (associated with Pitit Dessalines), were the actual executers of the violence. Both organizations are considered anarchist movements that co-opt disaffected youth and use them to develop a culture of political violence to undermine any efforts to build democratic institutions. They reject rule of law and use violence to impose their will. Anyone opposed to their agenda is verbally and physically threatened. Timothee, the head of FOPARK, even ordered his commandos over the radio to kidnap the CEP President and called for the “necklacing”[2] of President Martelly.

In the face of the raging violence, the CEP issued a communiqué postponing the January 24 elections in order to protect the voters from the threatened carnage. The communiqué detailed the violence and electoral intimidation.

The October Elections – Where the Crisis Began with False Claims of Fraud

For the past four years, some opposition parties led by Moise Jean Charles and Lavalas employed various tactics to block the organization of the elections with the objective of taking control of Haiti’s electoral machinery and organizing an electoral coup. President Michel Martelly, by contrast, has consistently engaged the opposition reaching two major power-sharing agreements with the opposition parties in an effort to keep the democratic process on track. The first was on December 2014, which gave the opposition control of the Prime Minister’s Office and the Government. The second was in January 2015 giving the opposition control of the CEP. This bears repeating: President Martelly has given the opposition control of the Prime Minister’s Office and the CEP. A third agreement was also on the table. In order to keep checks and balances, Martelly offered to extend the senators term in office (as was done in 2011) in exchange for them to sit for quorum[3] and vote on the electoral law.

Of the nine members on the CEP, the body tasked with overseeing the entire electoral process, all are representatives of the opposition, including the faction of the opposition now undermining the electoral efforts. Martelly’s government did not name a single member of the CEP.

The CEP was composed of the following members:

1.     Marie Carmelle Austin, a former Aristide Education Minister

2.     Pierre Louis Opont, a member of Preval’s Inite party since 2010 (resigned)

3.     Jacceus Joseph, a founding member of the Pitit Dessalines party (resigned)

4.     Nehemie Joseph, and member of the opposition party MOPOD (resigned and replaced by Carline Viergelin)

5.     Yolette Mengual, former chief of staff to Lassegue, a former cabinet member of both Aristide and Preval (resigned)

6.     Pierre Manigat, former chief editor of the Nouvelliste, close to Groupe de Bourdon (resigned)

7.     Lourdes Edith Joseph, from a worker union sector close to the opposition

8.     Vijonet Demero from the protestant church, which fielded six presidential candidates (resigned and replaced)

9.     Ricardo Augustin, from the Catholic Church. Two presidential candidates were closely associated to the Catholic Church and one boycotted the entire electoral process. (resigned)

See their resignation letters: http://www.slideshare.net/stanleylucas

When they gained control of the CEP, the opposition agreed to cease their four-year effort to block elections and participate in the democratic process. Legislative elections were held on August 9, but they were a complete mess. From administrative breakdown to the efforts of 85 political parties to manipulate the process, these elections were poorly managed. Because of the technical and financial assistance provided by the international community along with security from the UN Mission, MINUSTAH, Secretary John Kerry paid a visit to Haiti on October 6 to investigate the situation and attempt to broker a resolution. After the implementation of a set of technical recommendations, the Presidential election was scheduled for October 25 along with runoff Legislative elections.  

On October 25, 54 candidates participated in the Presidential elections, including one from the ruling party PHTK. The elections were a success; turnout was good in comparison to seven previous elections. There was no violence, and the electoral machinery responded well. For the first time in Haiti’s rocky democratic history, there was not at single death on Election Day. Haitian Diaspora expressed support for the process. And, all national and international observers agreed that although there were some irregularities, there was no evidence of fraud, and the elections were acceptable.

Things turned sour the day after the elections. Several Presidential candidates – who had been informed they did not qualify for the runoff [4] took to the radio screaming allegations of fraud. Yet, they could not present any technical report or their tally sheets to prove the elections were rigged. In fact, 96% of these candidates got less than 1% of the vote. According to the Haitian Diaspora electoral observation mission, (NOAH)-HDP, all of their evidence is anecdotal. Further, not one single candidate crying foul officially registered a complaint under the process outlined by the electoral law. Because they had a savvy media strategy – in country and internationally – their unsubstantiated claims got some traction. The candidates took to the radio giving impassioned speeches about being robbed of their elections, and Aristide’s highly paid US lobbying team made sure the story was told in Washington and around the U.S. They were behind several press articles undermining the elections, making damaging claims against the government and advocating the installation of an unconstitutional transitional government – essentially a coup against Martelly.

According to the official results, two of the 54 candidates actually qualified for the runoff: Jovenel Moise (PHTK) with 32.81% of the vote, and Jude Celestin (LAPEH) with 25.27%. Of the 54 candidates, 45 received less than 1% of the vote. Only three candidates registered in the double digits. The third and fourth top vote getters -- Moise Jean Charles (Pitit Dessalines) at 14.27% and Maryse Narcisse (Fanmi Lavalas) at 7.05% -- continue to claim that they won although neither of them has formally contested the results. Instead, they have attempted to block the electoral process in order to install an unconstitutional transitional government.

Maryse Narcisse employed a clever political communications strategy by requesting to visit a tabulation center to evaluate 78 tally sheets she previously selected (out of a total 13,265 tally sheets). She claimed that those “randomly” selected tally sheets were all characterized by fraud. Her show gave Aristide lobbyists fodder to derail the elections by presenting evidence of fraud to Washington, DC community. Local and international election observers and the CEP swiftly and decisively debunked her story of the 78 tally sheets.

Celestin Says He’s Boycotting the Process

Despite qualifying for the runoff, Jude Celestin has publicly stated that he refuses to participate in the electoral process unless he gets full control of the CEP. After the election, he formally submitted his recommendations to the CEP and the Independent Electoral Evaluation Commission for how to move the process forward. The CEP took 70% of his recommendations, but they did not revamp the CEP. This appears to be his major sticking point as he’s advocated the “reshuffling” of the CEP.

Celestin was a presidential candidate in 2010; he finished third with 230,000 votes. This year, he squeaked into the runoff after paying for and hyping some favorable polling results. He was completely mute during the first round of the elections. He gave only one interview to radio Vision 2000, and avoided the presidential debate organized by the Haitian Press and the economic debate of the Haitian Chamber of Commerce. This was an attempt to emulate Rene Preval’s 2006 electoral strategy in which his muteness won him the election. But the political environment of the 2014-2016 elections was different. The electorate demanded answers on many key economic and social issues, but Celestin remained mute. For example, Celestin never addressed how he would address the precarious situation of 3.5 millions peasants who are suffering the impact of a six months drought. So when he saw his support was meager, Celestin got his wealthy friends from an economic cartel known as the Groupe de Bourdon to finance three favorable polls for him. In each of these polls, he registered 37% support. He then had three influential radio stations hype these favorable polls. As a result, he was able to capture an additional 164,000 votes to put him at 394,000 votes qualifying him as second place for the runoff elections. Without these polls, he would have been dead in the water.

About the Other Presidential Candidate – Jovenel Moise

Jovenel Moise (PHTK), the ruling party candidate, is the son of a farmer and a seamstress. He started his first commercial water project at age 23 with $500. Today, his water company is worth $4.5 million. He has also been a successful investor in Haiti’s agricultural sector. Jovenel borrowed money from a private bank to create a company call AGRITRANS. Under this company, he banded together 3,000 small banana farmers and made a commercial investment in their combined business. As a result, Haiti is exporting bananas to Germany for the first time in 54 years. AGRITRANS also sells 80 tons of bananas in the local markets. This investment today is worth $27 million. Because of his personal achievements and a good political communication strategy, Jovenel connected with the voters who call him the “Banana Man” for his ability to feed Haitians and return Haiti to the export economy glory. His campaign promise was that the vast majority migrant workers would have an opportunity under his Administration to return home and earn a descent living. Jovenel reminded the voters that it was because of Haiti’s agricultural production that the country could buy its freedom from the slavery of France in 1804. His message has put him far out in front of Celestin.

The other advantage for Jovenel Moise is Martelly’s 2010 electoral base that represents 700,000 votes. While not perfect, the government performance under Martelly has been a vast improvement over the previous 40 years. Martelly inherited a country where all state institutions collapsed after the January 12, 2010 earthquake where 320,000 lost their lives, $14 billion in infrastructure was lost and 1.6 million people were living in makeshift tents. Even before the earthquake, Haiti was in dire shape. Kidnappings ware rampant averaging 300 per month. Almost 70% of the national budget was dependent on foreign aid, Haiti was not on the tourism map. About 1.5 million kids could not go to school and 5.5 million people were living under absolute poverty. Today, 1.55 million people are out from under the tents. The education budget increased from 6.7 to 13%, and as a result, 1.4 million more kids have access to school, transportation and a meal per day. The social programs, including ti manman cherie, Aba Grangou and Ede Pep financially helped 1.5 million pregnant women and heads of family with several kids. On the security side, kidnapping went down from 300 to zero after massive efforts to professionalize the police. Investments in tourism have attracted 12 new hotels, including Marriott and Best Western, and bread and breakfasts. The Administration made important investments in infrastructure like roads, ports and airports necessary for economic development. Haiti also climbed the rankings on two important democratic indices: the world freedom of the press index on which Haiti is now 47 (next to the U.S. ranked 46), and the global corruption index where there was very slight progress moving up several spots to 161 out of 192 (it was previous one of the bottom three). To be sure, Haiti has a long way to go, but the voters have recognized that for the first time in generations, progress has been made.

An Independent Electoral Commission Evaluates the Fraud Claims

In the face of the fraud claims, the opposition demanded and received a Commission to evaluate the claims. The Commission was organized with three independent observers. The opposition contested the members of the Commission, but they went to work anyway and produced a report. The Commission concluded that they identified irregularities and some fraud, but those irregularities did not affect the results of the elections. They made a set of recommendations, and the government and CEP applied 75% of the Commission’s recommendations. They additionally incorporated most recommendations made by Jude Celestin in a letter sent to the commission.

In addition, there are two practical indicators that the opposition claims of fraud were false. The first is that the parties claiming fraud already had their senators and deputies elected in the August 9 and October 25 elections sworn into parliament. The House has 24 parties represented by 96 deputies and 11 parties by 16 senators in the senate. Generally speaking when a ruling party is stealing elections they steel 75 to 85% of parliament like Fanmi Lavalas did in the May 21, 2000 elections trying to build a one party system, or like during the Duvalier era when they controlled 99% of the single Chamber of Deputies.

A Coup Attempt for an unconstitutional transitional government

Incapable to win the elections even with the control of the CEP, the goal of the opposition now is to block the electoral process in order to implement a coup to take over the government without the consent of the people. The opposition has employed extreme violence as outlined above. Out of fear for the voters’ safety, the CEP postponed the elections. Now, with the resignation of the opposition members of the CEP it is unlikely that the Presidential elections will be completed by February 7 at this point. The best guess is that elections may be completed by March or April.

This is exactly the same situation that was created by President Preval in 2011. In January 2011, jurisprudence was created for President Preval to remain in office for three months after his term ended. Preval was late in organizing the election for a new President to be sworn in February 7, 2011. So, parliament passed a law allowing him to remain in office until the elections were completed, despite calls for his departure. Elections were held in April, and Martelly took office on May 14, 2011.

This time around, the opposition is trying to create an environment to force the President out to prevent him from completing the elections so they can open the door to an unconstitutional provisional government. There is no constitutional provision to deal with the current political situation and only one precedent set by Preval. That unconstitutional government is expected to nullify the entire process and return Haiti to political instability once again. Failure to complete the elections opens the door to putting aside the country’s constitution. A provisional government is required to change every three months when the transfer of power it's legitimate not as a result of a violent coup. It will lack legitimacy or the political power to return the country to any stable footing or to organize fair elections.

Ignoring Preval’s precedent, each section of the opposition has their own plan to install their person as President under a transitional government. The opposition currently is comprised of several grouping known as the G-8, G-30, Espace de Resistance Democratique and Fanmi Lavalas:

·      G-8: Jude Celestin qualified for the runoff is a member of G-8. The G-8 includes Pitit Dessalines, OPL, Renmen Ayiti, MOPOD, KONVIKSYON. They all hate each other, but have banded together for the coup. But it’s unlikely they can work together to put together a coalition to defeat the ruling party candidate. Each of them has their own transitional defacto government candidate. Two members of the G-8, Moise Jean Charles Pitit Dessalines and Samuel Madistin, MOPOD, have taken Jude hostage stating publicly if he decide to run they will not support him. Moise Jean Charles declared that he won the elections and should be the new President on February 7.

·      The G-30 a group of 30 candidates who represent a mere 8% of the vote wants the annulment of the elections and a defacto provisional government

·        Fanmi Lavalas, Aristide would like to put Jocelerme Privert, the Lavalas president of the senate in as the provisional president of the country and his current lawyer Gervais Charles as the provisional Prime Minister. The first step for Privert is to use negotiations to block the National Assembly until February 7 and nullify the mandate of the 14 new senators and 97 deputies that emerged from the elections. Privet falsified the amendment of Haiti's constitution in 2011.

·        Mirlande Manigat (RNDP) who did not participate in the 2014-16 electoral process published a letter basically asking to be the next provisional president. Her Prime Minister would be Michele Pierre Louis. Manigat is part of Espace de Resistance a group of political parties that did not participate at all in the elections. This faction includes FUSION, RNDP and some lesser parties that cannot compete electorally.

·        Andre Michel, an anarchist lawyer, wants to be President on February 7 as well.

·      There are several other proposals including from the economic cartel Groupe de Bourdon and civil society that want a Supreme Court judge close to them to take over. Religious sectors are also trying to influence the process. The eight presidential candidates of the protestant and the catholic churches got less than 2%. Another proposal is for a Prime Minister of consensus to serve as the head of the Executive without the President.

So what’s a viable, inclusive path forward?

Most of the recommendations of the Independent Electoral Commission and Jude Celestin’s recommendations have been implemented. What’s missing is the revamping of the CEP and more external technical assistance and muscle against the violent actors that are burning schools, voting centers, businesses and citizens private properties to impose their coup.

The Port-au-Prince coup makers were caught by surprise by the reaction of the people from nine out of the ten geographic departments who have peacefully taken the streets of the countryside waving their voting cards asking for a date to vote-- bravery in the face of violence. They are also calling “Elections Yes, Defacto government without the consent of the people No!”

The next 15 days are crucial. Various actors of the international community, such as CELAC, OAS, the US and the UN, are visiting Haiti. Aristide is lobbying in Washington, trying to blackmail Hillary Clinton, and leverage two members of the Congressional Black Caucus, a former key OAS figure and two foreign ideologues to get support for the violent coup.

But the consensus among reasonable democrats seems to be the naming of a new Prime Minister, a reshuffling of the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP), and as in 2011, allowing the President, despite his desire to leave office on schedule, to remain in office until the completion of the elections between the two-runoff candidates by May 14. Even with this group sitting down to negotiate a democratic settlement, Lavalas representatives are floating unworkable solutions as a means to slow down discussions and run out the clock for the February 7 end date of Martelly’s Administration. This is widely viewed as a tactic to ensure an unconstitutional transitional government.

During the current talks, Prime Minister Evans Paul’s resignation was raised by the opposition, several names for a replacement Prime Minister have been discussed. Among then were former Prime Minister Jean Max Bellerive who was rejected because of his abysmal record as Prime Minister; and, Eriq Pierre, who has been rejected twice previously by parliament for the same office. Jonas Gue, a former Minister of Agriculture under Preval was also rejected. Three names remain on the list, Evans Paul, Senator Andris Riche and Reynold Deeb.  Additional power sharing scenarios for the cabinet are also on the table.

What is clear is that for stability in Haiti to ensure, the idea of an unconstitutional transitional government should be decisively rejected. Instead, the following recommendations should be considered:

1.     Learn from the 2010 electoral experience in which irregularities prompted a runoff between Martelly and Manigat. The process could be replicated to resolve these elections.

2.     Organize the National Assembly by February 3. If it is not organized by that date, anyone can dissolve it creating further instability.

3.     Revamp the CEP by February 5 through consultations and agreement among the Executive and Legislative branches and the two-runoff candidates. (February 10)

4.      Parliament should ratify a new Prime Minister and Cabinet by February 20 or a political agreement could reshuffle the current cabinet with Prime Minister Evans Paul that the opposition is trying to remove. If the President decides to leave the Prime Minister and the Cabinet will act as the Executive Branch. It happened twice before with Marc Bazin and Robert Malval. (February 6)

5.     Reinforce the international technical assistance to the CEP and electoral observation to ensure more transparency (February 10)

6.     Launch an international investigation to identify the undemocratic perpetrators, financier and organizers of the January 21-22 electoral violence, electoral intimidations and sanction them using the Democratic Charter. OAS has done that when political violence emerged in December 17, 2001 in Haiti. (February 6)

7.     USAID should use long term the funds given for democracy assistance to create a at INAGHEI the National Institute for Political Party Building, Governance and Electoral Worker training (June 2016)

8.     Increase media training assistance and journalists and radios accountability, fairness to avoid violence and support the creation of a national civil society press watchdog. (June 2016)

9.     OAS should train the national human rights community and ensure that some of the national human rights organizations do not replace political parties or act as such. (June 2016)

10.  Facilitate one or two Presidential Debates using the model of the Haitian Chamber of Commerce during the first round to avoid press partisanships and engage the public directly. (March 6 and 15)

11. According to the UN Security Council Resolution, review and strengthen MINUSTAH electoral security strategy that failed to stem the violence during the lead up to the scheduled January 24 elections. (February 4)

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[1] On November 29, 1987, paramilitaries burned voting centers and massacred dozens of voters to prevent the vote that would sanction them to occur.

[2] Necklacing refers to a method of murder in which the victim is doused with gasoline with tires around his/her neck and set on fire.

[3] Five Lavalas senators refused to sit for quorum for 215 days preventing the vote on the electoral law – a necessary step for the organization of the elections.

[4] According to Haiti’s electoral law, after counting the ballot in each precinct, the officials prepare an original tally sheet and four copies. The original tally sheet and the counting sheets go straight to the tabulation center; one copy goes to the nine members of the CEP; one is immediately put in the front wall of the precinct for public viewing; and, the remaining two go to the poll watchers of the two candidates who received the most votes. So by midnight on Election Day, if you didn’t get a copy of the tally sheet, you knew you didn’t make it.